Three-in-one professional tools: Poisson probability, arbitrage analysis, margin reveal
Based on the Poisson distribution model, enter expected goals (xG) for home and away teams to calculate probabilities and fair odds for all markets.
Home
43.3%Draw
27.0%Away
29.8%Home or Draw
70.2%No Draw
73.0%Away or Draw
56.7%Over
75.1%Under
24.9%Over
50.1%Under
49.9%Over
28.5%Under
71.5%Over
13.5%Under
86.5%Yes
54.7%No
45.3%Home
21.4%Away
78.6%Home
21.4%Away
56.7%Home
43.3%Away
56.7%Home
43.3%Away
29.8%Home
70.2%Away
29.8%Home
70.2%Away
12.3%Home
87.7%Away
12.3%Over
77.6%Under
22.4%Over
43.9%Under
56.1%Over
18.8%Under
81.2%Over
70.0%Under
30.0%Over
33.6%Under
66.4%Over
11.9%Under
88.1%1-1
12.8%1-0
9.9%2-1
8.9%0-1
7.9%2-0
7.4%0-0
7.1%1-2
7.1%2-2
5.8%0-2
4.7%3-1
4.4%Note: This calculator uses an improved Poisson algorithm optimized for football — draw probability is slightly increased, and favorite team outcomes are enhanced.